Executive Summary
We analyzed 20 prediction markets communities listed on Hive Index to understand where people gather, what these groups offer, and which communities attract the most interest.
The big picture: prediction markets listings cluster on Independent Platforms, while a few large groups pull member averages up.
Source: Hive Index community database · Updated 2026-10-14
- Communities
- 20
- Platforms
- 3
- Avg members
- 1.7M
- Median members
- 20K
Where Prediction Markets Communities Are Hosted
- Independent Platforms: 11 communities (55%)
- Reddit: 6 communities (30%)
- Discord: 3 communities (15%)
- 11(55%)
![Independent Platforms]()
Independent Platforms - 6(30%)
Reddit - 3(15%)
Discord
Format mix
- 17(85%)Forum / feed-based
- 3(15%)Chat communities
Most listings are forum / feed-based (85%).
Independent Platforms leads with 55%, but Reddit also has a meaningful share (30%).
Audience Size & Access
Community size
- Tiny: 0 communities (0%)
- Small: 0 communities (0%)
- Medium: 2 communities (10%)
- Large: 1 communities (5%)
- Huge: 8 communities (40%)
- Massive: 1 communities (5%)
- Gigantic: 1 communities (5%)
- 0(0%)Tiny<20 members
- 0(0%)Small20-100 members
- 2(10%)Medium100-1,000 members
- 1(5%)Large1,000-10,000 members
- 8(40%)Huge10,000-100,000 members
- 1(5%)Massive100,000-1M members
- 1(5%)Gigantic1M+ members
7 communities have unknown member counts.
Free vs paid
- Free to join: 20 communities (100%)
- Paid or apply-to-join: 0 communities (0%)
The average is much higher than the median (1.7M vs 20K), which usually means a few large groups are pulling the average up.
How Prediction Markets Differs From Other Categories
Prediction Markets is more free-to-join than typical Hive Index topics.
| Metric | Prediction Markets | Hive Index average |
|---|---|---|
| Free to join | 100% | 84% |
| Median members | 20K | 25K |
| Average members | 1.7M | 665K |
| Paid or apply-to-join | 0% | 16% |
| Live chat | 25% | 41% |
| Discord share | 15% | 18% |
Feature Mix
Common features appear in at least 15% of listings.
Common Features
- Forum: 17 communities (85%)
- Live Chat: 5 communities (25%)
- 85%Forum
- 25%Live Chat
Niche Features
- Online/Offline Events: 2 communities (10%)
- 10%Online/Offline Events
Forum appears on 85% of listings.
What Visitors Click
- Outbound clicks / mo
- 2
Platform supply vs. clicks
| Platform | Communities | Share of communities | Outbound clicks | Share of clicks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 30% | 1 | 50% | |
| Discord | 3 | 15% | 1 | 50% |
Share is calculated within this topic.
Reddit gets 50% of clicks but only 30% of listings, so visitors click it more than you'd expect from supply alone.
Most-clicked formats
- 1(50%)Forum / feed-based
- 1(50%)Chat communities
Most-clicked features
- 1(50%)Forum
- 1(50%)Live Chat
Top-clicked listings
- 1(50%)r/forecasting
- 1(50%)Metaculus Discord
Most clicks go to forum / feed-based and chat communities communities.
Trends
Founded year
- 1986: 1 communities (6%)
- 1996: 1 communities (6%)
- 2000: 1 communities (6%)
- 2009: 1 communities (6%)
- 2012: 2 communities (12%)
- 2013: 1 communities (6%)
- 2014: 2 communities (12%)
- 2015: 3 communities (18%)
- 2020: 3 communities (18%)
- 2021: 2 communities (12%)
3 communities have no founding year on file.
Most listed groups were founded around 2015.
Methodology & FAQ
Methodology
This report uses communities in the Hive Index database tagged as Prediction Markets. We exclude removed or suppressed listings. Member counts, traffic, features, reviews, and ratings may vary by source and are updated periodically.
- •This is a smaller slice of Hive Index's database, so read trends as directional.
- •Last updated 2026-10-14
FAQ
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